How we work
A peer-reviewed, dual-lens approach to climate and social vulnerability assessment
We combine satellite-based environmental analysis with ground-level social network research to produce integrated vulnerability profiles. The methodology has been developed, tested, and published in peer-reviewed journals.
Two streams, one assessment
Two streams, one assessment
Environmental data and social network analysis are treated as co-equal analytical pillars. Both feed into a single integrated vulnerability assessment at the country level.
Stream 1
Environmental vulnerability analysis
Our environmental dimension is grounded in Dr. Vitali Diaz's peer-reviewed integrated climate-risk framework. Three interconnected components turn satellite data and hydrological science into decision-ready assessments of where coffee systems are most exposed — and why.
1. Climate characterisation and variability
We analyse precipitation and temperature using historical datasets and climate projections to identify patterns, trends, and potential future scenarios. The STRIVIng toolbox (Diaz et al., 2019) captures how conditions evolve and how variability affects coffee agroecosystems over time — both gradual shifts and extreme-event frequencies that drive yield and quality.
2. Drought characterisation and hydrological dynamics
Drought is analysed not only temporally but in its spatial dimension — estimating drought-affected areas simultaneously across territory, which is critical for agricultural planning at regional scale. Soil moisture, runoff, and infiltration are evaluated to link climate variability to real impacts on coffee production. Recent work (Diaz et al., 2026) applies this spatial drought-area approach to machine-learning crop-yield prediction, enabling data-driven early warning.
3. Integrated climate risk assessment
Risk is the interaction of three elements: hazard (intensity and frequency of drought events), vulnerability (land use, environmental conditions, management practices), and resilience (capacity to absorb impacts and recover). Applied to the Lempa transboundary basin of the Central American Dry Corridor (Koshnazar et al., 2021) — the zone covering major coffee-producing areas in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras — this produces a climate-risk index identifying where interventions matter most.
Agroforestry integration
Coffee across LAC relies on shade management, which regulates microclimate, improves soil structure, and enhances water infiltration. We integrate agroforestry variables into the hydrological analysis so we can compare alternative management scenarios — conservative management, intensified shade, or degradation pathways — and their implications for water regulation and long-term sustainability.
Peer-reviewed foundations
- Diaz, V., Corzo, G. & Pérez, J.R. (2019). STRIVIng toolbox for spatiotemporal climate projections.
- Diaz, V., Osman, A.A.A., Corzo Perez, G.A., Maskey, S. & Solomatine, D. (2026). Spatiotemporal changes of drought area as input for ML crop-yield prediction. Hydrology Research 57(2): 125–149.
- Koshnazar, A., Corzo Perez, G.A. & Diaz, V. (2021). Spatiotemporal drought risk in the Lempa transboundary river basin. J. Marine Science & Engineering 9(4): 386.
Stream 2
Social Network Performance Indicators
The SNPI framework measures how well stakeholder networks actually collaborate on environmental governance. It links five key social indicators — relationship building, power sharing, social learning, trust building, and the potential for collective action — to quantitative network metrics such as density, centrality, and reciprocity.
Applied to a coffee sector governance network, SNPI produces a numerical picture of where collaboration is strong, where it fractures, and where external support could unlock collective action. It turns the social dimension into something measurable — not anecdotal.
- Public institutions
- Coffee business actors
- Civil society & NGOs
- Education & scientific
- International organizations
Sample network: five stakeholder categories drawn from the 2024 El Salvador study (illustrative).
Integration
Bringing it together
The two streams are not merely juxtaposed — they are integrated. Environmental risk indicators are weighted by the social network's capacity to respond to them. A region facing high drought risk with a highly collaborative stakeholder network is in a fundamentally different position than one facing the same risk without that collaborative capacity. The integrated assessment captures both.
Our fieldwork methodology — stakeholder encounters, participatory data gathering, and co-designed research agendas — was developed and tested in El Salvador and published in 2024. It distinguishes between Scope 1 practice-oriented interventions (what stakeholders can do with existing capacity) and Scope 2 transformative interventions (what requires structural change). That distinction shapes the recommendations we produce for each country case study.
