DialectikSocial Ecological Intelligence

Flagship project

The Coffee Initiative

A regional climate and social vulnerability assessment of the Latin American and Caribbean coffee sector — the first large-scale application of the SNPI framework, spanning five country case studies.

The initiative integrates satellite and environmental data with social network analysis across five country-level case studies. It is the first large-scale application of the SNPI framework, and the first assessment that treats social and environmental vulnerability as co-equal dimensions in the LAC coffee sector.

Close-up of ripening coffee cherries on a shaded coffee plant.

The LAC–EU trade context

A €28.8B market in the middle of a regulatory transformation

Europe is the world's largest coffee market and does not grow a bean of its own. Every cup consumed is imported — and the rules governing that import are changing faster than at any point in the EU's trade history. LAC producers supply over 60% of the world's coffee and 80% of global Arabica; what the EU decides about sustainability, traceability, and carbon accounting lands directly on Latin American farms.

€28.8BEuropean coffee imports (2024)
52%Global coffee originating in LAC
Up to 50%Arabica land loss projected by 2050
14M+Jobs in the LAC coffee sector

Four regulatory shifts shaping the next decade

EUDR — Deforestation Regulation

Every coffee shipment entering the EU must be verified deforestation-free, traceable to the exact plot of land where it was grown, and accompanied by geolocation data. Enforcement: 30 December 2026 (large and medium operators) · 30 June 2027 (micro and small enterprises). Non-compliance: fines up to 4% of EU turnover.

CBAM — Carbon Border Adjustment

CBAM does not yet cover coffee directly but affects it indirectly through nitrogen fertilisers, on which LAC coffee production heavily depends. Its definitive phase began 1 January 2026. Future scope expansion is under review for 2027–2028.

EU–Mercosur Partnership

Signed January 2026 after 25 years of negotiation; provisional application from May 2026. The agreement explicitly requires all products entering the EU to be deforestation-free under the EUDR. A January 2026 Parliament referral to the Court of Justice creates up to two years of regulatory uncertainty, particularly for Brazilian exports.

EU–Central America Association

In force since 2013. Coffee from Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Guatemala enters the EU duty-free. The 2025 extension added 11 new Geographical Indications from Central America, several coffee-related.

Download the full LAC–EU Intelligence Brief→

How we work

Three objectives, run in sequence

Each objective produces usable output on its own. Together they answer one question end to end: what the climate risk is, who would have to act on it, and what those actors decide to do.

Climate data and risk analysis

Analysis of climate data, extreme events, and risk across coffee agroforestry systems — combining global and satellite data, remote sensing, local weather stations, and citizen science.

  • Detailed climate risk calculations at farm, regional, and national level
  • Identification of the most vulnerable areas
  • Estimated economic impacts over short, medium, and long horizons

The goal is to put this information in the hands of the people with the most at stake: the producers.

Mapping the sector's actors

Mapping the actors that shape the social and commercial life of the coffee sector, and measuring how they are connected — at national, regional, and municipal level.

  • A quantifiable diagnostic of the sector's social, commercial, and institutional infrastructure
  • Diagnostics of technological capacity, and of inter-institutional communication and coordination
  • Strategies for agroforestry adoption and for the governance that runs the sector

A relevant map for a relevant problem. Every country has its own priorities, and its own strategic entities and groups.

Participatory design of adaptation strategies

Adaptation strategies designed with the local actors and users who will carry them out, rather than for them.

  • Deep engagement with local actors and end users
  • Better-quality data and stronger strategies, because the method is participatory
  • Effective and wide dissemination of the results

Participation is not a courtesy step. It is what makes the data and the strategies hold up in practice.

An open regional call across Latin America & the Caribbean

An open regional call across Latin America & the Caribbean

We are opening this initiative to all coffee-producing countries of the region. As national representatives and organizations join, their country profiles will appear here.

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The invitation

Partial or complete collaboration

The three components can be commissioned separately or as a single integrated system. Most partners begin with one and extend from there.

Climate risk data and analysis

Risk maps and projected financial losses.

  • Global data
  • Satellite data
  • Remote sensing
  • Local weather stations
  • Citizen science data

Participatory adaptation strategies

Governance analysis and maps, and intervention strategies.

  • Agricultural management practices
  • Technological solutions
  • Governance participation and inclusion

Integrated risk and adaptation system

Solutions tailored to the local context.

  • Agricultural management and adaptation practices
  • Technological solutions
  • Governance participation and inclusion
Start a conversation→

Infrastructure for impact

We strengthen the work of implementing organizations

We produce research and intelligence that strengthens the work of organizations like TechnoServe, Solidaridad, and national coffee institutes. We are not competing with implementing organizations — we are providing the evidence base they need, so that their programs can be targeted more effectively and their results more robustly evaluated.